Population
and the American Future
The Report of The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future
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Population
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One of the most serious challenges to human destiny in the last third of this century will be the growth of the population. Whether man’s response to that challenge will be a cause for pride or for despair in the year 2000 will depend very much on what we do today. If we now begin our work in an appropriate manner, and if we continue to devote a considerable amount of attention and energy to this problem, then mankind will be able to surmount this challenge as it has surmounted so many during the long march of civilization. Richard Nixon July 18, 1969 Table of Contents Dedication Chapter 1. Perspective on PopulationA Diversity of Views The Immediate Goal Chapter 2. Population GrowthThe United States The “Birth Dearth” The Boom Generation Implications of Growth United States Population, 1970 and 2000 Chapter 3. Population DistributionMetropolitan Growth Sources of Metropolitan Growth Migration Local Variations Rural Areas and Small Towns Metropolitan Dispersal Public Attitudes Where Do the Trends Lead Us? Urban Regions Population Stabilization, Migration, and Distribution Chapter 4. The EconomyIncome Economic Growth and the Quality of Life Poverty Labor Force Growth Business The Growth Mystique Chapter 5. Resources and the Environment How Population Affects Resources and the Environment Minerals Energy Water Outdoor Recreation Agricultural Land and Food Prices Pollution Risks and Choices The United States and the World Long-Term Strategic Planning Chapter 6. GovernmentPublic Service Costs State and Local Resources and Requirements Democratic Representation and Participation Administration of Justice National Security The Effects of Government Programs on Population Distribution Fragmentation of Metropolitan Government Government Planning Chapter 7. Social AspectsAge Structure The Aged The Family Population Density and Population Size Racial and Ethnic Minorities Chapter 8. Population and Public PolicyA Legacy of Growth The Choice About Future Growth The Quality of American Life Opportunity and Choice Policy Goals Chapter 9. EducationPopulation Education Education for Parenthood Costs of Children Family Life Education-Nutrition - Environment and Heredity Sex Education Chapter 10. The Status of Children and WomenThe Children Health and Development - Child Care - Adolescent Pregnancy and Children Born Out of Wedlock - Adoption Institutional Pressures Women: Alternatives to Childbearing - Historical Change - Alternative Roles - Employment - Education - Equal Rights - Tax Policy and Public Expenditures Chapter 11. Human ReproductionContraception and the Law Legal Impediments for Minors Voluntary Sterilization Abortion The Law - The Moral Question - Public Health - Family Planning - The Demographic Context - Public Opinion Methods of Fertility Control Fertility-Related Services Fertility-Related Health Services - Service Delivery and Personnel Training - Family Planning Services - Services for Teenagers Chapter 12. Population StabilizationThe Commission’s Perspective Criteria for Paths to Stabilization An Illustration of an Optimal Path The Likelihood of Population Stabilization Chapter 13. ImmigrationThe Past The Demographic Implications Illegal Aliens Competition for Work Chapter 14. National Distribution and Migration PoliciesAn Approach to Policy The Meaning of a Metropolitan Future A Dual Strategy Guiding Urban Expansion Racial Minorities and the Poor Depressed Rural Areas Institutional Responses Federal - State - Local Chapter 15. Population Statistics and
Research. Vital Statistics Data Enumeration of Special Groups International Migration The Current Population Survey Statistical Reporting of Family Planning Services National Survey of Family Growth Distribution of Government Data Mid-Decade Census Statistical Use of Administrative Records Intercensal Population Estimates Social and Behavioral Research Research Program in Population Distribution Federal Government Population Research Support for Professional Training Chapter 16. Organizational ChangesOffice of Population Affairs, Department of Health, Education and Welfare National Institute of Population Sciences Department of Community Development Office of Population Growth and Distribution Council of Social Advisers Joint Committee on Population State Population Agencies and Commissions Private Efforts and Population Policy Compilation of Recommendations Marilyn Brant Chandler Paul B. Comely, M.D Alan Cranston Otis Dudley Duncan John N. Erlenborn D. Gale Johnson John R. Meyer Grace Olivarez James S. Rummonds Howard D. Samuel George D. Woods Research Papers Consultants Consulting Organizations Participants in Public Hearings Mandate Tables
Table
2.1 —Demographic Perspective of 20th Century United States Table
3.1 — Metropolitan Population by
Size Class, 1970 Table 3.2 — Residential
Location and Preferences, 1971 Table 7.1 —Age Distributions, 1970 and 2000 Table 9.1 —The Total Cost of a Child, 1969 Table 11.1—Unwanted
Fertility in the United States, 1970 Figures
Figure 2.1—Total Fertility
Rate Figure 2.2—The Momentum of
Population Growth Figure 2.3—U.S. Population:
2 vs 3-Child Family Figure 3.1—Percent of
Population in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas by States: 1970 Figure 3.2—Percent of Change
in Total Population by Counties: 1960 to 1970 Figure 3.3—Urban Regions:
Year 2000 Figure 3.4—The Expanding
Area of Urban Regions Figure 5.1—Regional Water
Deficits Figure 5.2—Water Deficit
Regions: 3-Child Family Figure 5.3—Hydrocarbon Emissions Figure 6.1—Changes in
Congressional Representation by States: 1960 to 1970 Figure 7.1—Age Distribution Figure 7.2—Persons 65 and
Over Figure 7.3—Population
Density by Counties: 1970 Commission on Population Growth 726 Jackson Place, N. W. Washington, D. C. 20506 March 27, 1972 To the President and
Congress of the United States: I have the honor to transmit
for your consideration the Final Report, containing the findings and
recommendations, of the Commission on Population Growth and the American
Future, pursuant to Sec. 8, PL 91-213. After two years of
concentrated effort, we have concluded that, in the long run, no substantial
benefits will result from further growth of the Nation’s population, rather
that the gradual stabilization of our population through voluntary means would
contribute significantly to the Nation’s ability to solve its problems. We have
looked for, and have not found, any convincing economic argument for continued
population growth. The health of our country does not depend on it, nor does
the vitality of business nor the welfare of the average person. The recommendations offered
by this Commission are directed towards increasing public knowledge of the
causes and consequences of population change, facilitating and guiding the
processes of population movement, maximizing information about human
reproduction and its consequences for the family, and enabling individuals to
avoid unwanted fertility. To these ends we offer this
report in the hope that our findings and recommendations will stimulate serious
consideration of an issue that is of great consequence to present and future
generations. Respectfully submitted for
the Commission, John D. Rockefeller 3rd Chairman The President The President of the Senate The Speaker of the House of
Representatives The Commission Chairman John D. Rockefeller
3rd Vice Chairman Grace Olivarez Executive Director Food for All, Inc. Vice Chairman Christian N.
Ramsey, Jr., M.D. President The
Institute for the Study of Health and Society Joseph
D. Beasley, M.D. The
Edward Wisner Professor of Public Health Tulane
University Medical Center David
E. Bell Executive
Vice President The Ford
Foundation Bernard Berelson President The
Population Council Arnita Young
Boswell Associate
Field Work Professor School
of Social Service Administration University
of Chicago Margaret Bright Professor Dept. of
Behavioral Sciences and Dept. of Epidemiology School
of Hygiene and Public Health The
Johns Hopkins University Marilyn Brant
Chandler Housewife, Volunteer, Student Paul
B. Cornely, M.D. Professor Dept. of
Community Health Practice, College of Medicine Howard
University Assistant
to the Executive Medical Officer Welfare and Retirement Fund United
Mine Workers of America Alan Cranston United
States Senator California Lawrence A. Davis President Arkansas
Agricultural, Mechanical & Normal College Otis
Dudley Duncan Professor
of Sociology University
of Michigan John
N. Erlenbom United
States Representative 14th C.
District of Illinois Joan F. Flint Housewife,
Volunteer R.
V. Hansberger Chairman
and President Boise
Cascade Corporation D.
Gale Johnson Chairman Department
of Economics University
of Chicago John
R. Meyer President National
Bureau of Economic Research Professor of Economics Yale
University Bob
Packwood United States Senator Oregon James
S. Rummonds Student Stanford School of Law Stephen
L. Salyer Student Davidson College Howard
D. Samuel Vice President Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America James
H. Scheuer United States Representative 22nd C. District of New York George
D. Woods Director and Consultant The First Boston Corporation This report represents the
official views of the Commission, particularly as to the listed
recommendations. Clearly, in the case of a Commission with such diverse
membership, not every Commissioner subscribes in detail to every suggestion or
statement of policy. Commission Staff Executive DirectorCharles F. Westoff Deputy DirectorRobert Parke, Jr. Directors of ResearchSara Mills Mazie Elliott R. Morss A. E. Keir Nash Ritchie H. Reed* Dianne Miller
Wolman Director of Policy CoordinationCarol Tucker
Foreman Assistant to the ChairmanDavid K. Lelewem Director of Public InformationGerald Lipson General CounselBen C. Fisher Administrative OfficerLois A. Brooks Editorial CoordinatorCarol F. Donnelly Press OfficerRochelle Kutcher
Green CompositionLloyd Boucree Production CoordinationW. S. Pickens Professional Staff Gail K. Auslander Phyllis Coghlan Florence F.
Einhornn Duane S. Elgin Dorothy Mann Susan McIntosh Steve W. Rawlings Special ConsultantsDaniel Callahan Lenora T. Cartnght Robert F. Drury Edgar M. Hoover Frederick S. Jaffe Peter A. Morrison Ronald G. Ridker Norman B. Ryder Irene B. Taeuber Support StaffMarilyn L. Cleek Mary Ann Ferguson Mildred G. Herald Kathryn E. Herron Mac Arthur C. Jones Kituria D. Littlejohn Betty Marshall Pearl R. Phillips Diane 0. Sergeant Judith M. Stock Mary C. Wilcher Production StaffBea Garcia Eugenia Harrison Bea Rodgers James Sumiel |